The fact that Bush + Tory Blair somehow failed to see or understand that this would happen should be shocking to everyone. It’s very simple:
1. “Democracy,” if done right, means plurality rule.
2. The majority (not just the plurality) in Iraq is Irsael-unfriendly and Iran-friendly (Shia).
3. A truly fair electon in Iraq = bad for Israel, good for Iran (of the Axis of Evil).
4. But the neocons lose their right to complain, because now it’s The Will of The People.
So there are two choices:
1. Hold a fair, legit election and weaken your international position inestimably by creating an Israel-unfriendly, Iran-friendly theocracy that will be hostile to you for decades to come (oops).
2. Hold an unfair electon and weaken your international position inestimably by making claims about democracy while thuggishly oppressing the will of the people (oops).
Duh, kids. Duh. Welcome to what everyone warned you about. Half of the country has been making this calculation correctly since well before the invasion. Of course, there is a third choice, which is to hold no elections and simply occupy indefinitely until you’re sure you’ve won the “hearts and minds” and they’ll vote your way — more or less what we tried to do in Vietnam. But then, of course, as was the case in Vietnam, we won’t win hearts and minds because too many hearts and minds will be getting blown up in the process, and we’ll wind up fighting everyone in Iraq. And so we’ll eventually pull a Vietnam and pull out anyway after loosing however many thousand soldiers and killing however many civilians and voilá, after it all we’ll still have nothing but a US-unfriendly theocracy to show for it.
Bush, you fucked up. So did your entire team. A first year political science student could have navigated this one better than your team did. Congratulations, you’ve made the world a worse place.
If I’m wrong, I’ll be the first to admit it. But let’s watch and see what happens.